Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China

Kun Zhang, Yu Wang, Ali Mamtimin (), Yongqiang Liu, Lifang Zhang, Jiacheng Gao, Ailiyaer Aihaiti, Cong Wen, Meiqi Song, Fan Yang, Chenglong Zhou and Wen Huo
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Kun Zhang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Yu Wang: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Ali Mamtimin: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Yongqiang Liu: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Lifang Zhang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Jiacheng Gao: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Ailiyaer Aihaiti: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Cong Wen: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Meiqi Song: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Fan Yang: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Chenglong Zhou: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Wen Huo: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-23

Abstract: Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals.

Keywords: scenario simulation; carbon storage; spatiotemporal evolution; InVEST model; northern slope economic belt of Tianshan mountains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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