Investigating Endemic Species Conservation Hotspots Based on Species Distribution Models in Swat Region, Hindu Kush Pakistan

Shawkat Ali, Haidar Ali, Omid Ghadirian Baharanchi, Hassan Sher and Rasoul Yousefpour ()
Additional contact information
Shawkat Ali: Institute of Forestry and Conservation, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S-B3B, Canada
Haidar Ali: Centre for Plant Science and Biodiversity, University of Swat, Charbagh 19130, Pakistan
Omid Ghadirian Baharanchi: Institute of Forestry and Conservation, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S-B3B, Canada
Hassan Sher: Centre for Plant Science and Biodiversity, University of Swat, Charbagh 19130, Pakistan
Rasoul Yousefpour: Institute of Forestry and Conservation, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, ON M5S-B3B, Canada

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-18

Abstract: For the effective conservation of plant species, it is imperative to manage habitat loss and fragmentation by establishing a protected area network that comprehensively encompasses their habitat. In this study, we identified the suitable habitats for some endemic plant species in the Swat District, Pakistan, to conduct a thorough analysis of proposed protected areas (hotspot areas). Utilizing data from a recent botanical survey, environmental parameters from World-Clim, and various other sources, we determined the habitat of each species using the MaxEnt species distribution model. The modeled habitat suitability for each species were combined to generate maps illustrating endemic richness (hotspots), as well as to prioritize areas based on conservation value and habitat suitability. Future climate projections spanning from 2000 to 2050 were acquired from the WorldClim database Nineteen bioclimatic variables were assessed, incorporating data from three global climate models: CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MPI-ESM-LR. We modeled seven endemic species from the Swat District and, by combining their maps, found three hotspot areas which show more environmental suitability under future climatic conditions. The future model forecasts a significant decrease in population density by the year 2050. Currently, these species exhibit their highest density along the eastern and southern borders of the valley, particularly in the Karakar, Elum border, Mankial Kalam, and Gabral Kalam areas. The anticipated alterations in density and distribution could have a considerable impact not only on the tree species but also on the associated sub flora.

Keywords: endemic species; species distribution modeling; climate changes; hotspot; conservation of plant; Swat valley (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/737/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/6/737/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:6:p:737-:d:1400840

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().