Drought Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Rubber Plantation GPP—Insights from Flux Site-Based Simulation

Runqing Zhang, Xiaoyu E, Zhencheng Ma, Yinghe An, Qinggele Bao, Zhixiang Wu, Lan Wu () and Zhongyi Sun ()
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Runqing Zhang: Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Xiaoyu E: Ecology and Environment College, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Zhencheng Ma: Ecology and Environment College, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Yinghe An: Ecology and Environment College, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Qinggele Bao: Ecology and Environment College, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Zhixiang Wu: Danzhou Investigation & Experiment Station of Tropical Crops, Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences, Danzhou 571737, China
Lan Wu: Ecology and Environment College, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Zhongyi Sun: Key Laboratory of Agro-Forestry Environmental Processes and Ecological Regulation of Hainan Province, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: Drought, an intricate natural phenomenon globally, significantly influences the gross primary productivity (GPP) and carbon sink potential of tropical forests. Present research on the drought response primarily focuses on natural forests, such as the Amazon rainforest, with relatively limited studies on tropical plantations. Therefore, for a comprehensive understanding of global climate change, accurately evaluating and analyzing the sensitivity and vulnerability of rubber plantation GPP to various drought characteristics is crucial. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used in this research to quantify drought intensity. The Spatially Explicit Individual Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) was localized based on observation data from the Hainan Danzhou Tropical Agro-ecosystem National Observation and Research Station. Subsequently, the calibrated model was utilized to simulate the dynamic process of rubber plantation GPP under multi-gradient drought scenarios (2 extreme boundaries × 3 drought initiation seasons × 4 drought intensities × 12 drought durations × 12 SPEI time scales). The results show that the sensitivity and vulnerability of rubber plantation GPP exhibit significant differences under drought scenarios in different initiation seasons; GPP exhibits higher sensitivity to extreme, long-duration flash droughts in the early rainy season. Regarding vulnerability, the impact of extreme, long-duration flash droughts on GPP is most pronounced. This research lays the foundation for estimating the impact of droughts on the GPP of rubber plantations under future climate change scenarios, providing a scientific basis for enhancing regional ecological restoration and protection.

Keywords: SPEI; SEIB-DGVM; multi-gradient drought scenarios; Hainan Island (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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