Exploring Drivers of Wildfires in Spain

Rasheed Akinleye Hammed, Gbenga Lawrence Alawode, Laura E. Montoya, Andrey Krasovskiy () and Florian Kraxner
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Rasheed Akinleye Hammed: Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, University of Eastern Finland, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
Gbenga Lawrence Alawode: Faculty of Science, Forestry and Technology, University of Eastern Finland, 80101 Joensuu, Finland
Laura E. Montoya: Posgrado en Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Andrey Krasovskiy: Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Florian Kraxner: Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group, Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 6, 1-24

Abstract: Wildfires play a dual role in ecosystems by providing ecological benefits while posing catastrophic events; they also inflict non-catastrophic damage and yield long-term effects on biodiversity, soil quality, and air quality, among other factors, including public health. This study analysed the key determinants of wildland fires in Spain using openly available spatial data from 2008 to 2021, including fire perimeters, bioclimatic variables, topography, and socioeconomic datasets, at a resolution of 1 km 2 . Our methodology combined principal component analysis (PCA), linear regression analysis, and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Our findings show that scrub/herbaceous vegetation (average 63 ± 1.45% SE) and forests (average 19 ± 0.76% SE) have been highly susceptible to wildfires. The population density exhibited a robust positive correlation with wildfire frequency (R 2 = 0.88, p < 0.0001). Although the study provides insights into some fire-related climatic drivers over Spain, it includes only temperature- and precipitation-based variables and does not explicitly consider fuel dynamics. Therefore, a more advanced methodology should be applied in the future to understand the local specifics of regional wildfire dynamics. Our study identified that scrub/herbaceous areas and forests near densely populated regions should be prioritised for wildfire management in Spain, particularly under changing climate conditions.

Keywords: wildfires; land cover; driving factors; burned area; PCA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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