Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Emission under Multiple Development Scenarios at the City Level: A Case Study of Xi’an, China

Rui Bian, Anzhou Zhao (), Lidong Zou, Xianfeng Liu, Ruihao Xu and Ziyang Li
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Rui Bian: School of Mining and Geomatics, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Anzhou Zhao: School of Mining and Geomatics, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Lidong Zou: School of Artificial Intelligence, Shenzhen Polytechnic University, Shenzhen 518055, China
Xianfeng Liu: School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
Ruihao Xu: School of Mining and Geomatics, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Ziyang Li: School of Mining and Geomatics, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: Studying urban land use and its impact on carbon emissions is crucial for achieving China’s dual carbon goals. This research utilized the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios 126, 245, and 585 from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), along with a coupled System Dynamics (SD) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and a carbon emission coefficient method to simulate and predict Xi’an’s land use carbon emissions from 2020 to 2040. The results indicate the following: (1) Cultivated and forest lands are the predominant land use types in Xi’an, with cultivated and grassland areas projected to decline under all three SSP scenarios by 2040. The most significant expansion of construction land, primarily at the expense of farmland, is projected under the SSP585 scenario, with an increase of 515.92 km 2 by 2040. (2) Land use carbon emissions increased from 414.15 × 10 4 t in 2000 to 2376.10 × 10 4 t in 2020, with construction land being the primary source of emissions and forest land serving as the main carbon sink. However, the carbon sink capacity remained low at only 21.38 × 10 4 t in 2020. (3) Carbon emissions are expected to continue increasing under all scenarios through 2030 and 2040, though at a decreasing rate. The SSP126 scenario predicts the lowest emissions, reaching 9186.00 × 10 4 t by 2040, while SSP585 predicts the highest at 14,935.00 × 10 4 t. The findings of this study provide theoretical support for future low-carbon and high-quality urban development strategies.

Keywords: land use; carbon emission; SD model; PLUS model; multi-scenario simulation; Xi’an city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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