Spatio-Temporal Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China from 2001 to 2022

Qiuxuan Xu, Jinmei Li, Sumeng Zhang, Quanzhi Yuan () and Ping Ren
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Qiuxuan Xu: Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
Jinmei Li: Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
Sumeng Zhang: Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
Quanzhi Yuan: Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China
Ping Ren: Institute of Geography and Resources Science, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610101, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: Net primary productivity (NPP), a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem quality and function, represents the amount of organic matter produced by vegetation per unit area and time. This study utilizes the MOD17A3 NPP dataset (2001–2022) to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of NPP in Xinjiang and projects future trends using Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann–-Kendall test, and the Hurst Index. By integrating meteorological data, this study employs partial correlation analysis, the Miami model, and residual analysis to explore the driving mechanisms behind NPP changes influenced by climatic factors and human activities. The results indicate that: (1) The average NPP in Xinjiang has increased over the years, displaying a spatial pattern with higher values in the north and west. Regions with increasing NPP outnumber those with declining trends, while 75.18% of the area shows un-certain future trends. (2) Precipitation exhibits a stronger positive correlation with NPP compared to temperature. (3) Climate change accounts for 28.34% of the variation in NPP, while human activities account for 71.66%, making the latter the dominant driving factor. This study aids in monitoring ecological degradation risks in arid regions of China and provides a scientific basis for developing rational coping strategies and ecological restoration initiatives.

Keywords: climate change; driving mechanisms; human activities; net primary productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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