Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Mechanisms Considering Time-Lag and Accumulation Effects: A Case Study of Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration

Xi Liu, Guoming Du (), Xiaodie Zhang, Xing Li (), Shining Lv and Yinghao He
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Xi Liu: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Guoming Du: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Xiaodie Zhang: Beidou Research Institute, South China Normal University, Foshan 528225, China
Xing Li: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
Shining Lv: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
Yinghao He: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: The Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration (HBEY) was a crucial ecological barrier in northern China. To accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation growth, it is essential to consider the effects of time lag and accumulation. In this study, we used a newly proposed kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) as the metric for vegetation condition, and employed partial correlation analysis to ascertain the lag and accumulation period of vegetation response to climate by considering different scenarios (No/Lag/Acc/LagAcc) and various combinations. Moreover, we further modified the traditional residual analysis model. The results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2022, the HBEY experienced extensive and persistent greening, with a kNDVI slope of 0.0163/decade. Precipitation was identified as the dominant climatic factor influencing vegetation dynamics. (2) In HBEY, the lag effect of temperature was most distinct, particularly affecting the vegetation in cropland and grassland. The accumulation effect of precipitation was pronounced in grassland. (3) Incorporating lag and accumulation effects into models increases the explanatory power of climate impacts on vegetation dynamics by 6.95% compared to traditional residual models. Our findings hold essential implications for regional ecological regulation and climate change response research.

Keywords: kNDVI; lag and accumulation effects; modified residual analysis; partial correlation analysis; Hubao–Egyu Urban Agglomeration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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