Impact of Urbanization-Driven Land Use Changes on Runoff in the Upstream Mountainous Basin of Baiyangdian, China: A Multi-Scenario Simulation Study

Yuan Gong, Xin Geng, Ping Wang, Shi Hu and Xunming Wang ()
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Yuan Gong: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xin Geng: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Ping Wang: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Shi Hu: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Xunming Wang: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-22

Abstract: Urbanization in the Haihe River Basin in northern China, particularly the upstream mountainous basin of Baiyangdian, has significantly altered land use and runoff processes. The runoff is a key water source for downstream areas like Baiyangdian and the Xiong’an New Area, making it essential to understand these changes’ implications for water security. However, the exact implications of these processes remain unclear. To address this gap, a simulation framework combining SWAT+ and CLUE-S was used to analyze runoff responses under different land use scenarios: natural development (ND), farmland protection (FP), and ecological protection (EP). The model simulation results were good, with NSE above 0.7 for SWAT+. The Kappa coefficient for CLUE-S model validation was 0.83. The further study found that from 2005 to 2015, urban construction land increased by 11.50 km 2 per year, leading to a 0.5–1.3 mm rise in annual runoff. Although urban expansion continued, the other scenarios, which emphasized farmland and forest preservation, slowed this growth. Monthly runoff changes were most significant during the rainy season, with annual runoff in ND, FP, and EP varying by 8.9%, 10.9%, and 7.7%, respectively. While the differences in annual runoff between scenarios were not dramatic, these findings provide a theoretical foundation for future water resource planning and management in the upstream mountainous area of Baiyangdian and offer valuable insights for the sustainable development of Xiong’an New Area. Additionally, these results contribute to the broader field of hydrology by highlighting the importance of considering multiple land use scenarios in runoff change analysis.

Keywords: runoff change; land use change; urbanization; SWAT+ model; CLUE-S model; Baiyangdian basin; Xiong’an new area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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