Synergistic Development Pathways for National Parks and Local Regions: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenario Forecasting and Optimization

Danni Sun, Fanglei Zhong (), Ying Nie (), Yulian Ma, Yusong Liu and Yang Liu
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Danni Sun: School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Fanglei Zhong: School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Ying Nie: Institute of Data Science and Agricultural Economics, Beijing Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100097, China
Yulian Ma: School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Yusong Liu: School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China
Yang Liu: Power Market Research Center, China Three Gorges Corporation, Beijing 100038, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-24

Abstract: National parks play a crucial role in protecting ecosystems and biodiversity while facing challenges in balancing nature conservation and economic development. However, because of the difficulty in the unified simulation of natural protection functions and regional socioeconomic development, there is a lack of integrated prediction research on the comprehensive development pathways of national parks and their surrounding areas. This study adopts the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework that links climate change research with socioeconomic development paths, taking China’s first national park—Sanjiangyuan National Park—region as an example, to conduct research on the synergistic development path of regional socioeconomic development and national parks. The model design includes five typical paths to cover a wide range of socioeconomic development possibilities. These paths are based on different assumptions, including factors such as population growth, economic development, energy use, technological progress, and policy choices. By applying scenario planning methods, optimal development pathways are identified based on environmental, economic, and social priorities. The results show that GDP growth is fastest under the sustainable development and fossil fuel development pathways. By 2050, the population difference under different pathways will approach 100,000, and the GDP gap will be close to CNY 200 billion. This study provides valuable insights for the planning, decision-making, and management of Sanjiangyuan and similar national parks and their surrounding areas, contributing to the promotion of sustainable ecological and economic development of national parks and their regions.

Keywords: national parks; regional coordinated development; scenario planning; shared socioeconomic pathways; Sanjiangyuan National Park; sustainable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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