Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021 and Future Predictions

Yali Cheng and Yangbo Chen ()
Additional contact information
Yali Cheng: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Yangbo Chen: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-20

Abstract: Studying spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and the driving factors in the Yellow River Basin as well as simulating and predicting future land use is crucial for resource management, ecological protection, and regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) of the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021, this study employs various methods such as the Mann–Kendall test and sliding t -test, land use dynamics, the land use transfer matrix, the standard deviation ellipse, the center of gravity migration model, and a geographic detector to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and driving forces in the Yellow River Basin over the past 30 years. Additionally, the study predicts land use types in the study area for the year of 2030 by using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2021, the area of forest, grassland, water, and impervious surfaces increased significantly, while the area of cropland, shrub, barren land, and wetlands decreased significantly. The most actively changing land use types are cropland, grassland, barren land, and impervious surfaces. (2) The center of gravity for shrub and impervious surfaces shifted westward, while wetlands showed a trend of obvious concentrated distribution, and the remaining land use types exhibited stable directional distributions. (3) Economic factors had a stronger driving effect on land use changes than topographic and climatic factors. The land use changes in the Yellow River Basin are influenced by the coordinated driving forces of multiple factors. (4) In 2030, the main land use types in the Yellow River Basin are still expected to be cropland, grassland, and forest. However, there will be a significant expansion of impervious surfaces and forest land, with substantial encroachment on cropland and grassland.

Keywords: land use change; Yellow River Basin; FLUS model; standard deviation ellipse; geographic detector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/9/1510/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/9/1510/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:9:p:1510-:d:1479977

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().