An Integrated Framework for Assessing Dynamics of Ecological Spatial Network Resilience Under Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study of the Yunnan Central Urban Agglomeration

Bingui Qin, Junsan Zhao, Guoping Chen (), Rongyao Wang and Yilin Lin
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Bingui Qin: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Junsan Zhao: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Guoping Chen: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Rongyao Wang: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
Yilin Lin: Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-30

Abstract: Rapid climate change has exacerbated global ecosystem degradation, leading to habitat fragmentation and landscape connectivity loss. Constructing ecological networks (EN) with resilient conduction functions and conservation priorities is crucial for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development. However, the spatiotemporal modeling and dynamic resilience assessment of EN under the combined impacts of future climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes remain underexplored. This study focuses on the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration (CYUA), China, and integrates landscape ecology with complex network theory to develop a dynamic resilience assessment framework that incorporates multi-scenario LULC projections, multi-temporal EN construction, and node-link disturbance simulations. Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP-RCP) scenarios, we quantified spatiotemporal variations in EN resilience and identified resilience-based conservation priority areas. The results show that: (1) Future EN patterns exhibit a westward clustering trend, with expanding habitat areas and enhanced connectivity. (2) From 2000 to 2040, EN resilience remains generally stable, but diverges significantly across scenarios—showing steady increases under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, while slightly declining under SSP2-4.5. (3) Approximately 20% of nodes and 40% of links are identified as critical components for maintaining structural-functional resilience, and are projected to form conservation priority patterns characterized by larger habitat areas and more compact connectivity under future scenarios. The multi-scenario analysis provides differentiated strategies for EN planning and ecological conservation. This framework offers adaptive and resilient solutions for regional ecosystem management under climate change.

Keywords: ecological network resilience; SSP-RCP scenario; complex network theory; node-link disturbance simulation; spatial conservation prioritization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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