Meteorological Droughts in the Paraopeba River Basin: Current Scenarios and Future Projections

Claudiana Mesquita de Alvarenga, Lívia Alves Alvarenga, Pâmela Aparecida Melo, Javier Tomasella, Pâmela Rafanele França Pinto and Carlos Rogério de Mello ()
Additional contact information
Claudiana Mesquita de Alvarenga: Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil
Lívia Alves Alvarenga: Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil
Pâmela Aparecida Melo: Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos 12247-016, Brazil
Javier Tomasella: Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Cachoeira Paulista 12630-970, Brazil
Pâmela Rafanele França Pinto: Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil
Carlos Rogério de Mello: Departamento de Recursos Hídricos, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras 37203-202, Brazil

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: Meteorological droughts have been occurring with greater frequency and intensity, impacting water security in various regions. Between 2013 and 2015, the Paraopeba River Basin in southeast Brazil experienced its most severe drought in the last 70 years, resulting in low levels in the Paraopeba system reservoirs, which supplies 53% of the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte, the third largest metropolitan area in Brazil. This study evaluated the climate models’ performance from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 through drought indices projections, specifically the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The results showed that seven climate models can represent the current climate in the basin. For the drought’s projection, the indices were used in two time scales (six and twelve months) for both the current climate and two future scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). Our results highlight the intensification of droughts throughout the twenty-first century, with greater intensification in the SSP585 scenario. The SPEI indicated trends towards drier conditions, particularly under the SSP585 scenario and on the twelve-month timescale. These findings demonstrate the relevance of climate change and drought indices on the projections, supporting public policies for mitigation and adaptation, especially in strategic regions for water supply and hydro-electric generation.

Keywords: future projections; drought events; water security; basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/10/2093/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/10/2093/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:10:p:2093-:d:1776029

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().