Two Decades of Urban Transformation and Heat Dynamics in a Desert Metropolis: Linking Land Cover, Demographics, and Surface Temperature

Chao Fan (), Md Jakirul Islam Jony Prothan, Yuanhui Zhu and Di Shi
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Chao Fan: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA
Md Jakirul Islam Jony Prothan: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA
Yuanhui Zhu: Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666, USA
Di Shi: Klipsch School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-22

Abstract: This study presents a spatially explicit, multidecadal analysis of how land use and land cover (LULC) change and socio-demographic dynamics have influenced land surface temperature (LST) patterns in the Phoenix metropolitan area between 2001 and 2021. Using Landsat-derived summer LST, socio-demographic indicators, and land cover data, we quantify urban land transformation and socio-demographic changes over two decades. To account for spatial heterogeneity, we apply Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), which improves upon conventional regression models by allowing for variable-specific spatial scales. Results show that the 2001–2011 period was characterized by rapid suburban expansion and widespread conversion of croplands and open space to higher-intensity development, while 2011–2021 experienced more limited infill development. Correlation analysis reveals that agricultural and open space conversions were linked to population and housing growth, whereas redevelopment of existing urban areas was often associated with socio-demographic decline. MGWR results highlight that agricultural land conversion drives localized warming, while shrub/scrub-to-developed transitions are linked to broader-scale cooling. By combining spatial sampling, area-weighted interpolation, and MGWR, this study offers a fi-ne-grained assessment of urban thermal dynamics in a fast-growing desert region. The findings provide actionable insights for planners and policymakers working toward sustainable and climate-resilient urban development in arid environments.

Keywords: desert urbanization; land use and land cover change; multiscale geographically weighted regression; socio-demographic change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:11:p:2141-:d:1781233

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