Analysis of Sand Dune Migration and Future Trends on the Western Edge of the Kumtag Desert

Fan Yang (), Silalan Abudukade, Lishuai Xu, Akida Salam, Xinghua Yang, Wen Huo, Ali Mamtimin, Xinqian Zheng, Yihan Liu, Chenglong Zhou, Mingjie Ma, Fapeng Zhang and Cong Wen
Additional contact information
Fan Yang: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Silalan Abudukade: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Lishuai Xu: College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, China
Akida Salam: Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau, Artux 845350, China
Xinghua Yang: College of Geographical Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030032, China
Wen Huo: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Ali Mamtimin: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Xinqian Zheng: Xinjiang Agro-Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China
Yihan Liu: College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Chenglong Zhou: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Mingjie Ma: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
Fapeng Zhang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Cong Wen: Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration/National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang/Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm/Key Laboratory of Tree-Ring Physical and Chemical Research, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-15

Abstract: Sand dune migration, as a typical dynamic process of aeolian geomorphology in arid regions, directly influences regional ecological security and infrastructure development. Focusing on the western edge of the Kumtag Desert, this study uses remote sensing imagery and field investigations, combined with multi-factor meteorological observations and CMIP6 climate scenarios, to quantitatively analyze the migration characteristics and influencing factors of representative dunes, and to construct a predictive model for future migration trends. The dominant migration direction is W–WNW–NW, which closely matches the composite resultant drift potential. The average annual migration speed is 12.86 m·a −1 , classifying these dunes as fast-moving; small to medium dunes migrate faster (13.84 m·a −1 ) than large dunes (11.27 m·a −1 ). Wind speed, sand-moving wind frequency, drift potential (DP), Vegetation Fractional Cover (FVC), and precipitation significantly affect migration speeds; wind speed is the primary driver (single-factor R 2 = 0.41), while precipitation (R 2 = 0.26) and FVC (R 2 = 0.27) exert a suppressing effect, particularly on small to medium dunes. Based on stepwise multiple regression analysis combined with CMIP6 multi-model predictions, under the SSP8.5 scenario, characterized by significant temperature increases, drastic fluctuations in precipitation patterns, and notable increases in wind speed, the average annual sand dune migration speed is projected to reach 18.59 m·a −1 by the end of this century, an increase of 5.78 m·a −1 compared to the current speeds; whereas under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, changes are projected to be minor and overall relatively stable. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for regional infrastructure and engineering planning, as well as for the renovation and protection of existing oil and power transmission lines.

Keywords: Kumtag Desert; sand dune migration; environmental factors; CMIP6; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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