Assessing the Trade-Offs and Synergies Among Ecosystem Services Under Multiple Land-Use Scenarios in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Xiaoru He, Yang Li, Wei Li (), Zhijun Shen, Baoni Xie, Shuhui Yu, Shufei Wang, Nan Wang, Zhe Li, Jianxia Zhao, Yancang Li () and Shuqin Zhao
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Xiaoru He: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Yang Li: Center of Construction Management & Quality & Safety Supervision, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China
Wei Li: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Zhijun Shen: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Baoni Xie: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Shuhui Yu: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Shufei Wang: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Nan Wang: Safety and Security Office, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China
Zhe Li: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Jianxia Zhao: College of Geography and Land Engineering, Yuxi Normal University, Yuxi 653100, China
Yancang Li: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China
Shuqin Zhao: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 052161, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-26

Abstract: To enhance ecosystem services (ESs) benefits and promote ecological–economic–sociologic sustainability in highly urbanized regions such as the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, it is essential to assess the dynamic changes in ESs within these regions from a functional zoning perspective and to explore the interactions between ESs. This research delved into how ESs change over space and time, using land-use projections for 2035 based on Natural Development (ND), Ecological Protection (EP), Economic Construction (EC) scenarios. This study also took a close look at the interplay of these ESs across BTH and its five distinct functional zones: the Bashang Plateau Ecological Protection Zone (BS), the Northwestern Ecological Conservation Zone (ST), the Central Core Functional Zone (HX), the Southern Functional Expansion Zone (TZ), and the Eastern Coastal Development Zone (BH). We utilize the Multiple Ecosystem Service Landscape Index (MESLI) to assess the capacity to supply multiple ESs. Key results include the following: (1) Projected land-use changes for 2035 scenarios consistently show cropland and grassland declining, while forest and urbanland expand, though the magnitude of change varies by scenario. (2) Habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation displayed a “high northwest–low southeast” gradient, opposite to water yield. The average MESLI value declined in all scenarios relative to 2020, with the highest value under the EP scenario. (3) Synergies prevailed between habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation, while trade-offs occurred with water yield. These relationships varied spatially—for instance, habitat quality and soil conservation were weakly synergistic in the BS but showed weak trade-offs in the HX. These insights can inform management strategies in other rapidly urbanizing regions.

Keywords: functional zones; multi-scenario land-use change; ecosystem services (ESs); the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region; trade-offs and synergies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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