Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Land Ecological Security and Its Obstacle Factors in the Yangtze River Basin

Guo Li, Shuhua Zhong, Xinru Huang () and Xiaoqing Zhang ()
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Guo Li: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Shuhua Zhong: College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Xinru Huang: Hubei Key Laboratory for Efficient Utilization and Agglomeration of Metallurgic Mineral Resource, College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China
Xiaoqing Zhang: Hubei Key Laboratory for Efficient Utilization and Agglomeration of Metallurgic Mineral Resource, College of Resource and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-29

Abstract: The Yangtze River Basin serves as the socioeconomic core of China, and rapid development in recent years has intensified the conflict in the area between economic growth and ecological conservation. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution of the land ecological security (LES) across 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Basin from 2008 to 2023 by using the framework of the drivers, pressures, state, impact, and response model of intervention. We forecasted the trends of LES (2024–2033) by using a grey prediction model and identified the key obstacles to it through an obstacle degree model. The findings revealed the following: (1) Economic density (D3) and per capita water resources (S4) had significantly high weights, disproportionately impacting LES. Shanghai scored highest for Drivers, Impact, and Response subsystems, while Tibet led in Pressures and State. (2) Basin-wide LES scores improved from “less safe” to “critical safe” but saw no fundamental breakthrough. LES exhibited a three-tier spatial pattern: higher in the middle-lower reaches (e.g., Shanghai, Jiangsu) and lower in the upper reaches (e.g., Qinghai). Tibet remained “critical safe” with minor fluctuations; other regions improved gradually yet mostly remained “less safe” or “critical safe”. (3) Forecasts (2024–2033) indicate continued overall LES improvement. Shanghai and Jiangsu are projected to reach “safe” status, Qinghai will remain “unsafe”, while most others persist as “critical safe”. Basin LES remains fragile, requiring intervention. (4) The Drivers (D) and State (S) subsystems were the primary constraints on LES. Critical obstacle indicators included economic pressure (per capita GDP (D2), D3), resource availability (S4, ratio of effectively irrigated area (I1)), land productivity (agricultural/forestry output per unit area (I3)), and forest coverage rate (R6). Enhancing LES necessitates implementing regionally tailored policies addressing spatial variations, prioritizing urban economic optimization, strengthening water resource management, and ensuring effective cross-regional governance.

Keywords: land ecological security; DPSIR; Yangtze River Basin; grey prediction model; obstacle degree model; spatial difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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