The Policy Spatial Footprint: Causal Identification of Land Value Capitalization Using Network-Time Exposure

Ming Xie (), Xiaoxiao Liao and Tetsuya Yaguchi
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Ming Xie: Department of Architecture, Graduate School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 169-8555, Japan
Xiaoxiao Liao: Urban Architecture Research & Design Lab (co+labo), Department of System Design Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Yagami Campus, Keio University, Yokohama 223-8522, Japan
Tetsuya Yaguchi: Department of Architecture, Graduate School of Creative Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 169-8555, Japan

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-27

Abstract: Policies rarely act on simple circles around project sites. We develop a policy-semantics-to-geometry workflow that converts clause-level rules in ordinances into auditable Policy Spatial Footprints (PSFs) with explicit boundaries, timing markers, and intensity tiers, and we measure exposure in network time on road–rail graphs. Using 1.10 million arm’s-length parcel transactions from five Yangtze River Delta cities (2012–2024) and a catalog of 64 policies across regulatory, transport, and industrial/functional families, we estimate dynamic capitalization under staggered roll-outs while separating direct footprint effects from adjacency diffusion. Direct exposures are associated with policy-relevant uplifts that build over several years and then stabilize; spillovers attenuate within a few minutes of network travel time. Effects are systematically larger in thicker markets and where pre-policy regulatory headroom is greater. The PSF framework yields estimator-consistent maps with provenance and uncertainty tiers, providing a transparent basis for land-value-capture scheduling and equity-aware carve-outs.

Keywords: policy spatial footprint; network-time exposure; land price capitalization; difference-in-differences; Yangtze River Delta (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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