Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Forecasting of Ecosystem Service Value in Zhengzhou Using Land-Use Scenario Simulation

Yazhen Liang, Lei Zhang, Qingxin Li, Liu Yang (), Jinhua Sun (), Guohang Tian, Ting Wang, Hui Zhao and Decai Wang
Additional contact information
Yazhen Liang: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Lei Zhang: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Qingxin Li: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Liu Yang: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Jinhua Sun: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Guohang Tian: College of Landscape Architecture & Art, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China
Ting Wang: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Hui Zhao: Ecological and Environmental Research Laboratory, Henan Academy of Forestry, Zhengzhou 450008, China
Decai Wang: College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-29

Abstract: Ecosystem service value (ESV) is a critical indicator of regional ecological well-being. Assessing and forecasting ESV are essential for achieving the coordinated development of environmental and economic systems. This study employs the SD-PLUS model, integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change (LUCC), as well as ESV in Zhengzhou from 2030 to 2040. It analyses the impact of various driving factors on ESV and examines the spatial correlations among ecosystem services across different regions. The results indicate that the total ESV is expected to decrease by 73.53 × 10 7 yuan, primarily due to significant reductions in cropland and water areas. By 2040, ESV is projected to increase by 14.51 × 10 7 yuan under the SSP126 scenario, decrease by 73.18 × 10 7 yuan under the SSP585 scenario, and show a moderate decline under the SSP245 scenario. Climate factors, transportation location, and topographical features have a significantly positive impact on ESV, while environmental and socioeconomic factors exert a negative influence. The analysis of interrelationships among ecosystem services shows that synergies dominate, especially between supporting and cultural services, with only localised trade-offs observed. These findings contribute valuable insights for the development of scientifically sound, well-reasoned, and efficient strategies for ecological conservation and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem service value; scenarios of SSP-RCP; land use; trade-offs and synergistic relationships; PLS-SEM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/11/2255/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/11/2255/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:11:p:2255-:d:1794388

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().