Changes and Driving Factors of Ecological Environment Quality in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China from 2000 to 2020

Shuqing Yang, Ming Zhao (), Maolin Zhao, Qiutong Zhang and Xiang Liu
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Shuqing Yang: School of Land Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Ming Zhao: School of Land Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Maolin Zhao: School of Land Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Qiutong Zhang: School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China
Xiang Liu: School of Land Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: The agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China (APENC), a typical semi-arid and ecologically vulnerable zone, has experienced considerable shifts in eco-environmental quality (EEQ) over the past two decades under the combined pressures of climate change and human activities. However, systematic understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of EEQ in this region remains limited. Based on multi-source remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, this study constructed an ecological quality assessment index (EQAI) using principal component analysis (PCA) and quantitatively identified driving factors through geographical detector modeling. The results reveal a consistent improvement in EEQ over the study period, characterized by a marked expansion of higher-quality areas and a contraction of degraded zones, though spatial heterogeneity remained evident. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses (Moran’s I) confirmed a distinct clustering pattern, with persistent low-value clusters in the northwest and high-value clusters in the southeast and north. Notably, the most pronounced EEQ enhancement occurred between 2000 and 2005. Overall, 90.24% of the region exhibited an improving trend, while only 9.76% showed degradation. Hurst exponent analysis further indicated that this improving trend is likely to continue in the future across most areas. Factor detection identified meteorological drivers (precipitation) as the strongest influencer on EEQ, followed by land use type. Socioeconomic factors demonstrated relatively minor impact. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration policy-making and sustainable land management in the APENC and other ecologically fragile transitional regions.

Keywords: ecological quality assessment index; soil water; vegetation factor; geographic detector; the agro-pastoral ecotone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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