The Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Mechanisms of Cultivated Land Conversion to Non-Agricultural Uses in Jiangsu Province, China

Hao Zhou, Qian Shen (), Shu Qian, Majid Gulayozov, Junli Li and Changming Zhu
Additional contact information
Hao Zhou: School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
Qian Shen: School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
Shu Qian: School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China
Majid Gulayozov: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Junli Li: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Changming Zhu: School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-28

Abstract: Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses and their evolutionary driving mechanisms is of significant importance for regional cultivated land protection and food security. This study utilizes time-series land use datasets, DEM, meteorological data, and statistical yearbook data to construct an assessment model for the rate of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses. Based on this model, the study conducts spatial autocorrelation analysis and locational gradient analysis to systematically investigate the characteristics and driving mechanisms of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural uses in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2023. The study revealed several key findings: (1). The total area of cultivated land in Jiangsu Province has demonstrated a trend of ‘initial continuous decline followed by a slight recovery after 2015.’ Spatially, it exhibits a distribution pattern characterized by ‘continuous reduction around urban areas, with relative stability in the northern core regions’. (2). The temporal pattern of cultivated land conversion to non-agricultural use in Jiangsu Province follows a trajectory of ‘rapid expansion (2000–2015) followed by a gradual slowdown (2015–2023),’ with significant gradient differences observed spatially (‘Southern Jiangsu > Central Jiangsu > Northern Jiangsu’). (3). The conversion of cultivated land to non-agricultural use in Jiangsu Province results from the combined effects of natural constraints, socio-economic driving factors, and agricultural policies. Topographical constraints and urban radiation have emerged as the primary spatial conditions promoting non-agriculturalization, with urban expansion identified as the most direct driving factor of cultivated land conversion in recent years. Conversely, agricultural factors have exerted a relatively weaker influence on non-agriculturalization. These research findings provide a significant scientific basis for formulating differentiated cultivated land protection policies across the province, thereby assisting in achieving a balance between food security and coordinated urban–rural development.

Keywords: cultivated land; spatiotemporal patterns; driving mechanisms; non-agricultural uses; Jiangsu province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/12/2347/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/12/2347/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:12:p:2347-:d:1806650

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().