Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China

Mingwei Ma, Yuhuai He, Yanwei Sun, Huijuan Cui () and Hongfei Zang
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Mingwei Ma: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Yuhuai He: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Yanwei Sun: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Huijuan Cui: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Hongfei Zang: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-19

Abstract: Exploring the future ecosystem service value ( ESV ) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future ESV was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional ESV was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km 2 ) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km 2 ) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km 2 and 2770 km 2 , respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional ESV s are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction.

Keywords: land use change; CA–Markov model; ecosystem service value; multi-scenario simulation; Yellow River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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