From Policy to Practice: Assessing Carbon Storage in Fujian Province Using Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Qin Nie, Wang Man (), Zongmei Li and Xuewen Wu
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Qin Nie: College of Computer and Information Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Wang Man: College of Computer and Information Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Zongmei Li: College of Computer and Information Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China
Xuewen Wu: College of Computer and Information Engineering, Xiamen University of Technology, Xiamen 361024, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Simulating and predicting carbon storage under different development scenarios is crucial for formulating effective carbon management strategies and achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, studies that focus on specific regions and incorporate local policy context require further investigation. Taking Fujian Province as a case study, this research developed four policy-driven scenarios—natural development, farmland protection, urban development, and ecological protection—based on local policy frameworks. Using the PLUS (Patch-generating Land Use Simulation) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) models, the study simulated and predicted the carbon storage dynamics under each scenario. The results show that carbon storage declined from 1995 to 2020, mainly due to the conversion of forests and agricultural land into construction areas. The ecological protection scenario demonstrated the highest potential for carbon storage recovery, projecting an increase to 2.02 billion tons by 2030, driven by afforestation and conservation initiatives. Conversely, the urban development scenario posed the greatest risks, leading to substantial losses. Key conservation areas, including 12 priority districts, were identified in the western and northwestern regions, while coastal urban areas, comprising 31 vulnerable districts, face significant carbon storage losses. These findings emphasize the need for balanced land use policies that prioritize both urban development and ecological protection to achieve sustainable carbon management.

Keywords: carbon storage; land use/cover change; FLUS model; local policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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