Impact of Economic Agglomeration on Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Spatial Spillover Effect: A Case Study of Guangdong Province, China

Qian Xu, Junyi Li, Ziqing Lin, Shuhuang Wu, Ying Yang (), Zhixin Lu, Yingjie Xu and Lisi Zha
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Qian Xu: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Junyi Li: Guangdong Guodi Planning Science Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510650, China
Ziqing Lin: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Shuhuang Wu: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Ying Yang: School of Culture Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Zhixin Lu: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Yingjie Xu: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China
Lisi Zha: School of Public Administration, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-22

Abstract: Social and economic growth in developing countries has heightened the awareness of environmental challenges, with carbon emissions emerging as a particularly pressing concern. However, the impact of economic development on carbon emission intensity has rarely been considered from the perspective of economic agglomeration, and the relationships and mechanisms between the two remain poorly understood. We analyzed the impact of economic agglomeration on carbon emission intensity and its spatial spillover effect in Guangdong Province, the most economically advantaged province of China, based on a spatial weight matrix generated using geographic proximity, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), and the spatial Durbin model. Between 2000 and 2019, economic agglomeration and carbon emission intensity in Guangdong Province exhibited persistent upward trajectories, whereas between 2016 and 2019, carbon emission intensity gradually approached zero. Further, 80% of the province’s economic output was concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region. Strong spatial autocorrelation was observed between economic agglomeration and carbon emission intensity in the cities, and the economic agglomeration of the province had a parabolic influence on carbon emission intensity. Carbon emission intensity peaked at an economic agglomeration level of 1.2416 × 10 9 yuan/km 2 and then gradually decreased. The spatial spillover effect of the openness degree on carbon emission intensity was positive, while GDP per capita and industrial structure had negative effects. Further, the economic agglomeration effects of Guangdong Province increased the carbon emission intensity of major cities and smaller neighboring cities. The stacking effect of economic agglomeration between cities also affected the carbon emission intensity of neighboring cities in the region. During the period of rapid urban development, industrial development and population agglomeration increased resource and energy consumption, and positive externalities such as the scale effect and knowledge spillover were not well reflected, resulting in greater overall negative environmental externalities relative to positive environmental externalities.

Keywords: economic agglomeration; carbon emission intensity; spatial spillover effect; Guangdong Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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