Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Non-Grain Production Rate of Planting Structure in Jilin Province from the Perspective of Grain Security

Tianqi Tang, Yongzhi Wang, Shibo Wen (), Tengrui Yu, Liye Liu and Hongzhi Yang
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Tianqi Tang: College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Yongzhi Wang: College of Geoexploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
Shibo Wen: College of Geoexploration Science and Technology, Jilin University, Changchun 130026, China
Tengrui Yu: College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
Liye Liu: Bairui International Conference & Exhibition Group Co., Ltd., Changchun 130022, China
Hongzhi Yang: College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: Grain security is the foundation of national security, and non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPCL) poses a challenge to grain security. Existing research on the NGPCL has mainly focused on large-scale studies, with relatively few analyses at smaller scales, such as county-level units. Therefore, we selected Jilin Province, one of China’s most important grain-producing areas, as the study region. We extracted data on NGPCL from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and calculated the non-grain production rate of cultivated land for each of the province’s counties. Based on this, we used the gravity center and standard deviation ellipse models, and spatial autocorrelation analysis tools to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the non-grain production rate of the planting structure (NGPRPS) in Jilin Province. Finally, we applied the geographic detector to analyze the impact of 10 factors on the changes in the NGPRPS. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the NGPRPS in Jilin Province generally showed a downward trend, which can be divided into three phases: fluctuation, decline, and an initial increase followed by a decrease. (2) There is a clear spatial differentiation in the non-grain production of planting structure (NGPPS) in Jilin Province, with the spatial pattern being generally low in the center and higher at the periphery. In the early stage, the non-grain production rate (NGPR) increased rapidly, while in the later stage, the spatial distribution of NGPPS became more pronounced in the southeastern direction. (3) In the short term, policy factors played a significant role in the changes in the NGPRPS. In the long term, however, natural environment, production resources, economic level, and social development showed interactive effects on the changes in the NGPR in the region. Based on these findings, the government can adopt corresponding measures and management policies considering the impact of these factors, the research results, and the proposed strategies. These include the rational implementation of land use planning, delineating the baseline for cultivated land protection, and controlling the use of cultivated land.

Keywords: cultivated land; grain crops; sustainable development; geo-detector; public policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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