Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy

Davide Berardi, Marta Galuppi (), Angelo Libertà and Mara Lombardi
Additional contact information
Davide Berardi: Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy
Marta Galuppi: Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy
Angelo Libertà: Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy
Mara Lombardi: Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-28

Abstract: The growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to aid emergency planning in Italy and estimate territorial resilience indicators. Focusing on wildfire ignition hazards in Ischia, the study uses a probabilistic model based on fifteen years of wildfire data (2009–2023). By analyzing ignition points and employing a Poisson distribution, it correlates ignition probabilities with vegetation types. The hazard maps reveal that wildfire risk is primarily influenced by the wildland–urban interface and vegetation characteristics, emphasizing the need to integrate territorial and urban factors into wildfire forecasting. The findings also suggest areas for refining the model to enhance risk mitigation strategies.

Keywords: ignition points; wildfire forecasting; wildland–urban interface; vulnerability assessment; spatial distribution; fire resilience (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/277/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/2/277/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:2:p:277-:d:1579558

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().