Investigation of the Key Drivers of Vegetation Change Based on a Paired Land Use Experiment Approach—A Case Study of the Emin River Transboundary Basin

Litian Zhu, Tiexi Chen (), Xin Chen, Shuci Liu, Shengjie Zhou, Shengzhen Wang and Wenhui Li
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Litian Zhu: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Tiexi Chen: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Xin Chen: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Shuci Liu: Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government, Brisbane 4102, QLD, Australia
Shengjie Zhou: School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Shengzhen Wang: Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Plateau Climate Change and Corresponding Ecological and Environmental Effects, Qinghai Institute of Technology, Xining 810016, China
Wenhui Li: Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Plateau Climate Change and Corresponding Ecological and Environmental Effects, Qinghai Institute of Technology, Xining 810016, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: Remote sensing observations have shown an increasing trend in the vegetation leaf area index (LAI) over the past three decades, with climate change and human activities identified as the primary drivers of vegetation change. However, a challenge remains in identifying and quantifying the role of different drivers. In this study, we employed the paired land use experiment (PLUE) approach, which is based on the concept of natural comparative controlled experiments, to assess the impacts of human activities, especially land management, in the Emin River Basin within the border between China and Kazakhstan. The comparable climate, alongside the significant differences in human activities between the two sides of the Emin River, makes it ideal for applying the PLUE method. We found that during 2001 to 2022, both regions experienced similar inter-annual trends. The leaf area index (LAI) increased in both regions (Chinese region: 8.3 × 10 −3 yr −1 m 2 m −2 ; Kazakhstan region: 5.8 × 10 −4 yr −1 m 2 m −2 ), with the most significant increase observed in the Chinese cropland region (2.79 × 10 −2 yr −1 m 2 m −2 ). Through residual trend analysis, we found that the increase in the LAI from April to May in the Kazakhstan region was mainly positively influenced by human grazing activities. Comparatively, the LAI growth from June to August in the Chinese cropland region was mainly attributed to land managements. This study emphasizes the influence of human activities, especially land management, on vegetation and reveals the key factors affecting the LAI within different periods.

Keywords: LAI; PLUE; residual trend analysis; vegetation change; land management; cropland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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