Assessing Forest Carbon Sequestration in China Under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

Mingli Qiu, Yuxin Zhao and Dianfeng Liu ()
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Mingli Qiu: School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Yuxin Zhao: School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
Dianfeng Liu: School of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: Understanding how climate policies impact forest carbon sequestration is crucial for optimizing mitigation strategies. This study evaluated forest carbon sequestration in China from 2020 to 2060 under three climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6 (high mitigation), SSP3-7.0 (limited mitigation), and SSP5-8.5 (no mitigation). We integrated the land-use harmonization (LUH2) and patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) models to project forest cover change, and the Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed land (LPJmL) model to simulate carbon dynamics. The results showed stronger mitigation efforts led to higher sequestration, with annual rates of 0.49, 0.48, and 0.20 Pg yr −1 across the scenarios. SSP1-2.6 achieved the highest carbon density (17.75 kg m −2 ) and sequestration (56.95 Pg), driven by the greatest increases in the carbon density of existing forests (+41.56%) and soil carbon (+39.94%). SSP3-7.0, despite the highest forest cover (34.74%), had a lower carbon density (17.19 kg m −2 ) and sequestration (56.84 Pg). SSP5-8.5 recorded the lowest forest cover (27.12%) and sequestration (45.62 Pg). Increasing carbon density, rather than expanding forest area, could be more effective for carbon sequestration in China. The carbon density and annual sequestration in existing forests were 2.36 and 2.89 times higher than in new forests. We recommend prioritizing SSP1-2.6 to maximize sequestration, focusing on protecting southwest forests and soil carbon.

Keywords: climate change mitigation; carbon sequestration; forest management; CMIP6; spatial modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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