Response of Ecosystem Service Value to LULC Under Multi-Scenario Simulation Considering Policy Spatial Constraints: A Case Study of an Ecological Barrier Region in China

Chen Zhang (), Zhanqi Wang, Hanwen Du and Haiyang Li
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Chen Zhang: Department of Land Resource Management, School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Zhanqi Wang: Department of Land Resource Management, School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Hanwen Du: Department of Land Resource Management, School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Haiyang Li: School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-26

Abstract: Analyzing the complex dynamics of land use, accurately assessing ecosystem service values (ESVs), and predicting future trends in land use and ESVs alterations within the spatial constraints of policies are essential for policymaking and advancing sustainable development objectives. This study analyzed land use/land cover (LULC) changes in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2020. Policy constraints were incorporated into the scenario simulations, and an improved equivalent factor method, Markov-PLUS model, global spatial autocorrelation, and the Getis-Ord Gi* method were applied to predict and analyze LULC and ESVs under different scenarios for 2030. The findings revealed the following: (1) Forests and grasslands were the dominant land use categories in YNP, with notable alterations in land use patterns recorded between 2005 and 2020. (2) The total ESVs in the study area increased by CNY 8.152 billion during this period, exhibiting an initial decline followed by gradual recovery. (3) Simulations for 2030 indicated that the natural development scenario would lead to the most extensive urbanization, while the ecological conservation scenario would yield the greatest increase in total ESVs. In contrast, only the farmland conservation scenario led to an increase in food production-related ESVs, but resulted in the lowest total ESVs among the three scenarios. These results contribute to understanding the impacts of land use changes on ESVs, and provide insights for formulating scientifically sound and effective ecological protection and development policies.

Keywords: LULC change analysis; ecosystem service value; multi-scenario simulation; sustainable development; PLUS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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