Evaluation of Urban Flood Susceptibility Under the Influence of Urbanization Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Xiaoping Fu, Fangyan Xue, Yunan Liu (), Furong Chen and Hao Yang
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Xiaoping Fu: Ecological Civilization Collaborative Innovation Center, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Fangyan Xue: Ecological Civilization Collaborative Innovation Center, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Yunan Liu: Ecological Civilization Collaborative Innovation Center, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Furong Chen: Department of Construction Economics and Management, Guangzhou Urban Construction Vocational School, Guangzhou 510006, China
Hao Yang: Ecological Civilization Collaborative Innovation Center, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: Urban flood susceptibility has emerged as a critical challenge for cities worldwide, exacerbated by rapid urbanization. This study evaluates urban flood susceptibility under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the context of urbanization. A coupled modeling approach integrating the System Dynamics (SD) model and the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model was employed to project future land use changes under sustainable development, moderate development, and conventional development scenarios. Additionally, an XGBoost model was developed to assess urban flood susceptibility. The results indicate that urban construction land will continue to increase over the next 30 years, with the extent of growth varying across different scenarios. Notably, under the conventional development scenario, rapid economic growth leads to a significant expansion of built-up land and a sharp decline in ecological land, which in turn exacerbates the urban flood susceptibility. Consequently, urban flood susceptibility is projected to increase across all three scenarios, albeit at varying rates. Specifically, under the sustainable development scenario, 27% of Guangzhou is projected to face high flood risk. In the moderate development scenario, the area classified as high-risk increased by 868.73 km 2 . Under the conventional development scenario, the high-risk area expanded from 1282.9 km 2 in 2020 to 2761.33 km 2 , representing a 16% increase. These differences are primarily attributed to changes in land use, which alter surface runoff and subsequently enhance the city’s vulnerability to waterlogging. This study provides a comprehensive framework for assessing urban flood susceptibility in the context of urbanization, offering valuable insights for formulating targeted flood prevention and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: urban flood susceptibility; urbanization; XGBoost; future land use simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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