Impacts and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Change on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, China

Ling Zhang, Weipeng Li (), Zhongsheng Chen, Ruilin Hu, Zhaoqi Yin, Chanrong Qin and Xueqi Li
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Ling Zhang: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Weipeng Li: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Zhongsheng Chen: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Ruilin Hu: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Zhaoqi Yin: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Chanrong Qin: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
Xueqi Li: School of Geographical Sciences, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: The Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, and quantitatively analyzes the effect of LUCC on runoff in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) through land use data from 2000 to 2020 and predicted scenarios for 2030 that encourage development, farmland protection, and ecological protection. The results show that reductions in farmland, grassland, and forest areas promote runoff, while increases in construction land similarly contribute to greater runoff. In all 2030 scenarios, the JRB is dominated by farmland and grassland. The mean annual runoff of LUCC under the three simulated prediction scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to LUCC in 2020, and the distribution of mean annual runoff depth is roughly the same. In addition, there is a strong interconnection between land use types and runoff in their dynamic relationship. Within the LUCC scenario, the decrease in farmland and forest land, along with the growth of construction land area promote runoff, while grassland plays a suppressive role in runoff. The results can offer a scientific foundation for improving soil erosion as well as optimizing land use patterns in the JRB.

Keywords: land use/cover change; SWAT model; PLUS model; runoff simulation; Jinghe River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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