Optimizing Ecological Management in China: Insights from Chongqing’s Service Projections

Yang Duan, Wenjun Wu (), Rufeng Xiao, Hongqiang Jiang and Bo Wang ()
Additional contact information
Yang Duan: State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China
Wenjun Wu: State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China
Rufeng Xiao: Chongqing Institute of Eco-Environmental Science, Chongqing 401147, China
Hongqiang Jiang: State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China
Bo Wang: Center for Rural Environmental Protection, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100041, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-25

Abstract: The assessment of ecosystem service (ES) supply–demand relationships is critical for addressing regional sustainable development challenges, yet systematic studies integrating spatial drivers analysis and multiscenario forecasting in rapidly urbanizing mountainous regions remain scarce. This study focuses on Chongqing as a representative case to investigate spatial patterns, driving mechanisms, and future trajectories of ES supply–demand dynamics. Through spatial quantification of four key ES (food provision, water retention, soil conservation, carbon fixation) and statistical analysis of socioeconomic datasets from 2010 to 2020, geographical weighted regression modeling was employed to identify spatially heterogeneous drivers. Long-term projections (2030–2060) were developed using climate–economy integrated scenarios reflecting different global development pathways. The results demonstrate three principal findings: First, while regional ecosystem quality maintains stable with an improved supply–demand ratio (0.260 to 0.320), persistent deficits in carbon fixation capacity require urgent attention. Second, spatial mismatches exhibit intensifying polarization, with expanding deficit zones concentrated in metropolitan cores and their periurban peripheries. Third, thermal-hydrological factors (aridity index, temperature) coupled with land intensification pressures emerge as dominant constraints on ES supply capacity. Scenario projections suggest coordinated climate mitigation and sustainable development strategies could maintain the supply–demand ratio at 0.189 by 2060, outperforming conventional development pathways by 23.5–41.2%. These findings provide spatial decision support frameworks for balancing ecological security and economic growth in mountainous megacities, with methodological implications for cross-scale ES governance in developing regions.

Keywords: ecosystem services; supply–demand; spatial–temporal mismatch; geographically weighted regression model; SSP–RCP scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/788/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/4/788/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:788-:d:1629085

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().