An Integrated Trivariate-Dimensional Statistical and Hydrodynamic Modeling Method for Compound Flood Hazard Assessment in a Coastal City

Wei Wang (), Jingxiu Wu, Slobodan P. Simonovic and Ziwu Fan ()
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Wei Wang: Hydraulic Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Jingxiu Wu: Hydraulic Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
Slobodan P. Simonovic: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Western University, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada
Ziwu Fan: Hydraulic Engineering Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-27

Abstract: Extreme flood occurrences are becoming increasingly common due to global climate change, with coastal cities being more vulnerable to compound flood disasters. In addition to excessive precipitation and upstream river discharge, storm surge can complicate the flood disaster process and increase the hazard of urban flooding. This study proposed an integrated trivariate-dimensional statistical and hydrodynamic modeling approach for assessing the compound flood hazard associated with extreme storm surges, precipitation events, and upstream river discharge. An innovative trivariate copula joint modeling and the frequency amplification method were used to simulate designed values under different return periods (RPs), considering the correlation of the three factors. The results show remarkable differences between the inundated areas of flood events with trivariate drivers and a single driver under the same RPs, indicating that univariate frequency values are insufficient to manage flood threats in compound flood events. The proposed method provides guidelines for comprehending the compound flood process and designing flood control projects in coastal cities.

Keywords: compound flood hazard; hydrodynamic modeling; amplification flood hazard; coastal city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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