Spatial and Temporal Variability of Near-Surface CO 2 and Influencing Factors in Urban Communities

Yueyue Wu, Yi Zheng (), Jialei Liu, Qingxin Yang, Beixiang Shi, Chenghe Guan and Wanxin Deng
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Yueyue Wu: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Yi Zheng: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Jialei Liu: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Qingxin Yang: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Beixiang Shi: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
Chenghe Guan: Key Laboratory of Urban Design and Urban Science, New York University Shanghai, Shanghai 200122, China
Wanxin Deng: School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 4, 1-30

Abstract: CO 2 is the primary contributor to global warming, and also the most significant anthropogenic emission gas in cities. This study investigates near-surface CO 2 spatiotemporal variability patterns at the community scale to address the critical gap in urban CO 2 high-resolution measurement and promote urban carbon neutrality. Combining fixed and mobile monitoring across five representative communities (1-km 2 coverage) with two-hour temporal precision and 20 m spatial resolution, results revealed average CO 2 concentrations of 440–480 ppm, exhibiting bimodal diurnal cycles and highlighting spatiotemporal divergent emission behaviors. Three communities peaked during 17:00–19:00 LT, while two peaked during 08:00–10:00 LT. Spatial correlation analysis identified two dominant patterns: road-adjacent “externally dominated” hotspots and “internally dominated” zones with elevated intra-community levels. Spearman correlation analysis, Random Forest, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression models quantified spatial morphology and element contributions, demonstrating that building morphology exerted time-varying impacts across communities. Meanwhile, external traffic contributed 18–39% to concentration variability, while internal traffic and energy consumption drove localized peaks. The findings indicated that apart from the emission sources, the micro-scale urban spatial design elements also regulate the near-surface CO 2 distribution. This high-resolution approach provides actionable insights for optimizing community layouts and infrastructure to mitigate localized emissions, advancing carbon neutrality targeted urban planning.

Keywords: urban communities; near-surface CO 2 concentration; CO 2 spatiotemporal variability; in situ carbon neutrality; low-carbon urban planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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