Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage Dynamics in the Lijiang River Basin, China: A Complex Network Model Approach

Xinran Zhou, Jinye Wang, Liang Tang, Wen He and Hui Li ()
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Xinran Zhou: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Jinye Wang: College of Tourism & Landscape Architecture, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541006, China
Liang Tang: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Wen He: Guangxi Key Laboratory of Plant Conservation and Restoration Ecology in Karst Terrain, Guangxi Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Guilin 541006, China
Hui Li: College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: As a typical karst landform region, the Lijiang River Basin, located in Southwest China, is characterized by both soil erosion and ecological fragility. The transformation of land use, driven by long-term intensive human activities, has exacerbated the degradation of ecosystem services, threatening the region’s carbon sink function. To clarify the coupling mechanism between land use and land cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage, this paper integrates complex network theory with the PLUS-InVEST model framework. Based on land use data from five periods, i.e., 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021, the key transformation types are identified, and the evolution of carbon storage from 2021 to 2041 is simulated under three scenarios, namely, inertial scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban development scenario. The paper finds that (1) land use transformation in the basin exhibits spatial heterogeneity and network complexity, as evidenced by a significant negative correlation between the node clustering coefficient and the average path length, revealing that land type transitions possess small-world network characteristics. (2) The forested land experienced a net decrease of 196.73 km 2 from 2001 to 2021, driving a 3.03% decline in carbon storage. This highlights the inhibitory effect of unregulated urban expansion on carbon sink capacity. (3) Scenario simulations indicate that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will be 1.0% higher than under the inertial scenario and 1.5% higher than under the urban development scenario. These suggest that restricting impervious land expansion and promoting forest and grassland restoration can enhance carbon sink capacity. Therefore, this paper provides a quantitative basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning and coordinating the “dual carbon” goals in karst regions.

Keywords: LUCC; complex networks; carbon storage; Markov–PLUS model; multiple scenario simulation; Lijiang River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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