Monitoring Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Forces in the Baijiu Golden Triangle Using Multi-Decadal Landsat NDVI and Geodetector Modeling

Miao Zhang, Yuanjie Deng (), Yifeng Hai, Hang Chen, Aiting Ma, Wenjing Wang, Lu Ming, Huae Dang, Minghong Peng, Dingdi Jize, Cuicui Jiao and Mei Zhang
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Miao Zhang: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Yuanjie Deng: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Yifeng Hai: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Hang Chen: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Aiting Ma: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Wenjing Wang: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Lu Ming: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Huae Dang: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Minghong Peng: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Dingdi Jize: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Cuicui Jiao: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China
Mei Zhang: School of Economics, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong 643000, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-27

Abstract: The China Baijiu Golden Triangle (BGT) serves as the core production hub of China’s Baijiu industry, where the ecological environment plays a pivotal role in ensuring the industry’s sustainable development. However, urbanization, industrial expansion, and climate change pose potential threats to the region’s vegetation dynamics. Utilizing Landsat remote sensing data from 2002 to 2022, this study integrates Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, coefficient of variation (CV) analysis, and the Geodetector model (GD model) to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and its underlying driving mechanisms within the BGT. The findings reveal an overall upward trend in vegetation NDVI, with the annual mean NDVI increasing from 0.45 to 0.67, corresponding to a growth rate of 0.49%. Spatially, areas of high vegetation cover are predominantly located in mountainous forest zones with favorable ecological conditions, whereas regions of low vegetation cover are concentrated in zones of urban expansion. Precipitation and topographic factors (elevation and slope) emerge as the primary natural drivers of vegetation change, while land use change and the night-time light index stand out as the most influential human-induced factors. Further analysis uncovers a nonlinear interactive enhancement effect between natural and anthropogenic factors, with the interaction between the night-time light index and precipitation being particularly pronounced. This suggests that urbanization not only directly impacts vegetation but may also exert indirect effects on the ecosystem by altering regional hydrological and climatic processes. The results indicate that ecological protection policies in the BGT have yielded some success; however, vegetation fragmentation and ecological pressures stemming from urban expansion remain significant challenges. Moving forward, optimizing land use policies and promoting eco-friendly development models will be essential to achieving ecosystem stability and sustaining industrial growth.

Keywords: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); spatiotemporal evolution; driving factors; Geodetector (GD); Baijiu Golden Triangle (BGT) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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