Constructing Ecological Networks and Analyzing Impact Factors in Multi-Scenario Simulation Under Climate Change

Hua Bai, Yaoyun Zhang, Jiazhuo Huang and Haopeng Chen ()
Additional contact information
Hua Bai: School of Architecture, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710061, China
Yaoyun Zhang: School of Architecture, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710061, China
Jiazhuo Huang: School of Architecture, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710061, China
Haopeng Chen: Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-25

Abstract: Persistent climate change and anthropogenic activities have caused the degradation of urban ecosystems and the fragmentation of landscapes in the Loess Plateau region, situated in northern China. Ecological networks have been considered an effective measure for reducing urban habitat fragmentation, enhancing landscape connectivity, and identifying priority areas for ecological restoration. However, research on the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecological networks in cities in the Loess Plateau region, especially multi-scenario ecological networks under future climate change scenarios, and the drivers affecting these network elements are still limited. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamic changes in the ecological networks in Shenmu City from 2000 to 2035, and used GeoDetector to explore the driving factors influencing changes in ecological source distribution. The results showed the following: (1) The ecological sources in Shenmu City continued to shrink from 2000 to 2020, while landscape fragmentation increased. By 2035, the results of scenario modeling will differ for different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), with the ecological source area increasing under scenarios SSP119 and SSP245, and continuing to decrease under scenario SSP585. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the α, β, and γ indices increased and then declined, while the ecological networks of the SSP119 and SSP585 scenarios will stabilize. (3) Under the optimal scenario SSP119, 27 ecological pinch points and 40 ecological barrier points will be identified, which are priority areas for the future execution of ecological restoration initiatives. (4) Precipitation is the primary factor that affects the distribution of ecological sources, followed by temperature. This study proposes a new research perspective on ecological networks, and provides a guideline for ecological restoration and conservation in cities (counties) in the Loess Plateau region.

Keywords: ecological network; climate change; land use; scenario simulation; GeoDetector (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/1120/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/1120/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:1120-:d:1660820

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().