Analysis of the Evolution of Non-Agriculturization Arable Land Use Pattern and Its Driving Mechanisms

Ying Zhang, Qiang Wang, Yueming Hu, Wei Wang and Xiaoyun Mao ()
Additional contact information
Ying Zhang: College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Qiang Wang: Aerospace Wanyuan Cloud Data Hebei Co., Ltd., Tangshan 063000, China
Yueming Hu: College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Wei Wang: College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
Xiaoyun Mao: College of Natural Resources and Environment, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: Arable land is a crucial natural resource for human survival and development, which supports food production, ecological services, and material–energy cycling. It is not only an important production resource for agriculture but also a key guarantee for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural development. Understanding the current utilization of arable land, exploring the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics, and analyzing the driving mechanisms behind its pattern changes are essential for the rational allocation and sustainable utilization of arable land resources. This study focuses on the utilization of arable land in Guangzhou from 2005 to 2018, employing methods such as statistical analysis and spatial econometrics to provide an in-depth analysis of the spatial–temporal distribution characteristics and driving mechanisms of arable land changes. The results show that from 2005 to 2018, the issue of the conversion of arable land to non-agricultural uses was quite severe in Guangzhou, with the primary form being the conversion of arable land into urban residential construction land. Kernel density analysis revealed that non-agriculturization in Guangzhou exhibited spatial clustering, mainly concentrated in areas with lower elevation. Using standard deviation ellipses and centroid migration analysis, it was found that the center of gravity of non-agriculturization in Guangzhou was generally distributed in a southwest–northeast direction, with a more distinct dispersion compared to the northwest–southeast direction. From 2005 to 2010, the rapid increase in the non-agriculturization rate of arable land in Guangzhou was mainly driven by population density and per capita income, both having a positive impact. From 2010 to 2015, the main driving factor shifted to regional GDP. From 2015 to 2018, regional GDP and the value of the tertiary industry became the main driving factors, but unlike the impact of GDP, the tertiary industry exerted a negative influence on non-agriculturization.

Keywords: arable land use; spatial–temporal changes; non-agricultural uses; driving mechanisms; Guangzhou city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/968/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/5/968/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:5:p:968-:d:1646775

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().