Assessment of Ecological Carrying Capacity and Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis for Arid Areas Based on the AHP-EW Model: A Case Study of Urumqi, China

Xiaoyan Tang (), Funan Liu, Xinling Hu and Jingyu Feng
Additional contact information
Xiaoyan Tang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Funan Liu: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Xinling Hu: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Jingyu Feng: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-23

Abstract: Ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is central to assessing the sustainability of ecosystems, aiming to quantify the limits of natural systems to support human activities while maintaining biodiversity and resource regeneration. To assess ECC, earlier studies typically used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method for modeling. In this study, we developed an AHP-EW method based on a combination of AHP and the entropy weight method, which considered important indicators including land use, vegetation, soil, location, topography, climate, and socio-economics, and constructed an ECC evaluation system. The new AHP-EW method was applied to analyze the spatiotemporal ECC patterns in Urumqi from 2000 to 2020. The results showed a general decreasing trend in ECC during the period 2000–2020. Among them, the ECC decreased significantly by 19.05% from 2000 to 2010. After 2010, the rate of decline in ECC slowed to 14.12% due to ecological conservation policies. In addition, Midong District, Dabancheng District, and Urumqi County had worse ECC. Still, in general, the distribution of ECC in each district and county showed a trend of decreasing in areas with low ECC and increasing in areas with high ECC. Cluster analysis showed that ECC improved in ecological reserve areas, while some built-up areas showed a decrease in ECC due to economic development and human activities. Driving factor analysis shows that NDVI, climate change, and land-use conversion are the key factors influencing the change in ECC in Urumqi. This study provides new ideas and technical support for ECC assessment in arid areas, which can help formulate more effective ecological protection strategies and promote the healthy and stable development of regional ecosystems.

Keywords: ecological carrying capacity; analytic hierarchy process; entropy weight method; pattern analysis; arid areas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1143/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1143/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:6:p:1143-:d:1663549

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().