Spatiotemporal Land Cover Change and Future Hydrological Impacts Under Climate Scenarios in the Amazonian Andes: A Case Study of the Utcubamba River Basin

Abner S. Rivera-Fernandez, Alexander Cotrina-Sanchez, Rolando Salas López, Jhon A. Zabaleta-Santisteban, Ney Rios, Angel J. Medina-Medina, Katerin M. Tuesta-Trauco, José A. Sánchez-Vega, Teodoro B. Silva-Melendez, Manuel Oliva-Cruz, Cecibel Portocarrero and Elgar Barboza ()
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Abner S. Rivera-Fernandez: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Alexander Cotrina-Sanchez: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Rolando Salas López: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Jhon A. Zabaleta-Santisteban: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Ney Rios: Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), Turrialba 30501, Costa Rica
Angel J. Medina-Medina: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Katerin M. Tuesta-Trauco: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
José A. Sánchez-Vega: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Teodoro B. Silva-Melendez: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Manuel Oliva-Cruz: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Cecibel Portocarrero: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru
Elgar Barboza: Instituto de Investigación para el Desarrollo Sustentable de Ceja de Selva (INDES-CES), Universidad Nacional Toribio Rodríguez de Mendoza de Amazonas, Chachapoyas 01001, Peru

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-24

Abstract: Understanding how land use and climate change jointly affect water availability is essential for sustainable planning in tropical Andean–Amazonian basins. This study focuses on the Utcubamba River Basin in northeastern Peru, a data-scarce and socioecologically strategic watershed where land transformation and climate variability converge. A multi-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) analysis (1990–2024) was conducted, coupled with hydrological modeling using the SWAT model under historical and future climate scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5), including the spatial overlay of the LULC change concentration with key hydrological indicators. LULC classifications revealed forest loss and the expansion of pasture, agriculture, and shrubland areas, particularly in the upper basin. Hydrological projections showed significant changes in water flow, including reductions in minimum monthly flows by up to 73.9% and increases in peak flows by 14.8% under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The water balance is expected to shift, with increased percolation and reduced lateral flow, suggesting decreased storage capacity. By identifying critical sub-basins where land degradation and water insecurity converge, the study supports adaptive strategies for land restoration, aquifer recharge planning, and ecosystem conservation. Despite limited hydrological infrastructure, the SWAT model effectively simulated water dynamics, aiding climate resilience and water security efforts in the Amazonian Andes.

Keywords: SWAT model; Andean forest; hydrological modeling; LULC; watershed (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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