Can the Coordinated Development of Land Urbanization and Population Urbanization Promote Carbon Emission Efficiency? A Multi-Scale Heterogeneity Analysis in China

Hanlong Gu, Qi Liu, Ming Cheng, Chongyang Huan, Bingyi Wang and Jiaqian Wu ()
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Hanlong Gu: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Qi Liu: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Ming Cheng: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Chongyang Huan: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Bingyi Wang: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
Jiaqian Wu: College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-27

Abstract: Coordinating development of land urbanization and population urbanization (CDLUPU) to enhance carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is a critical challenge for developing countries experiencing accelerated urbanization. The coupled coordination model and super efficiency SBM are employed to estimate the levels of CDLUPU and CEE across 276 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2021. Furthermore, we utilize kernel density estimation and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics and spatial effects. The results indicate that CDLUPU levels exhibited a sustained upward trend with diminishing regional disparities, whereas CEE displayed a pattern of initial growth followed by decline. Spatial analyses revealed a consistent gradient structure for both CDLUPU and CEE, characterized by radiation decay from southeastern coastal hubs toward interior hinterlands. CDLUPU exerts a significant positive direct impact and spatial spillover effect and indicates that the spillover effects on peripheral regions are substantially stronger than local effects. Regional heterogeneity analysis reveals that CDLUPU negatively affects CEE in eastern China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is more pronounced, but it positively impacts central and western China, as well as Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) and Chengdu–Chongqing (CY). Regarding indirect effects, eastern China shows significant positive impact on CEE, and similarly in the YRD. However, central China exhibits a negative effect, whereas BTH shows the opposite trend. Western China and CY show statistically insignificant results. This study offers policy insights for China to coordinate new urbanization strategy and achieve the “dual carbon goal”.

Keywords: land urbanization; population urbanization; carbon emission efficiency; coordinated development; Spatial Durbin Model; heterogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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