Identification of Restoration Pathways for the Climate Adaptation of Wych Elm ( Ulmus glabra Huds.) in Türkiye

Derya Gülçin, Javier Velázquez (), Víctor Rincón, Jorge Mongil-Manso, Ebru Ersoy Tonyaloğlu, Ali Uğur Özcan, Buse Ar and Kerim Çiçek
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Derya Gülçin: Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın 09100, Türkiye
Javier Velázquez: TEMSUS Research Group, Catholic University of Ávila, 05005 Ávila, Spain
Víctor Rincón: TEMSUS Research Group, Catholic University of Ávila, 05005 Ávila, Spain
Jorge Mongil-Manso: Department of Environment and Agroforestry, Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Catholic University of Ávila, 05005 Ávila, Spain
Ebru Ersoy Tonyaloğlu: Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın 09100, Türkiye
Ali Uğur Özcan: TEMSUS Research Group, Catholic University of Ávila, 05005 Ávila, Spain
Buse Ar: Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Agriculture, Aydın Adnan Menderes University, Aydın 09100, Türkiye
Kerim Çiçek: TEMSUS Research Group, Catholic University of Ávila, 05005 Ávila, Spain

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-27

Abstract: Ulmus glabra Huds. is a mesophilic, montane broadleaf tree with high ecological value, commonly found in temperate riparian and floodplain forests across Türkiye. Its populations in Türkiye have declined due to anthropogenic disturbances and climatic pressures that cause habitat fragmentation and threaten the species’ long-term survival. In this research, we used Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) to build species distribution models (SDMs) and applied the Restoration Planner (RP) tool to identify and prioritize critical restoration sites under both current and projected climate scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, SSP585). The SDMs highlighted areas of high suitability, primarily along the Black Sea coast. Future projections show that habitat fragmentation and shifts in suitable areas are expected to worsen. To systematically compare restoration options across different future scenarios, we derived and applied four spatial network status indicators using the RP tool. Specifically, we calculated Restoration Pixels (REST_PIX), Average Distance of Restoration Pixels from the Network (AVDIST_RP), Change in Equivalent Connected Area (ΔECA), and Restoration Efficiency (EFFIC) using the RP tool. For the 1 <-> 2 restoration pathways, the highest efficiency (EFFIC = 38.17) was recorded under present climate conditions. However, the largest improvement in connectivity (ΔECA = 60,775.62) was found in the 4 <-> 5 pathway under the SSP585 scenario, though this required substantial restoration effort (REST_PIX = 385). Temporal analysis noted that the restoration action will have most effectiveness between 2040 and 2080, while between 2081 and 2100, increased habitat fragmentation can severely undermine ecological connectivity. The result indicates that incorporation of habitat suitability modeling into restoration planning can help to design cost-effective restoration actions for degraded land. Moreover, the approach used herein provides a reproducible framework for the enhancement of species sustainability and habitat connectivity under varying climate conditions.

Keywords: adaptation; restoration; connectivity; ecological niche modeling; landscape planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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