Historical Land Cover Dynamics and Projected Changes in the High Andean Zone of the Locumba Basin: A Predictive Approach Using Remote Sensing and Artificial Neural Network—Cellular Automata Model

German Huayna, Victor Pocco, Edwin Pino-Vargas (), Pablo Franco-León, Jorge Espinoza-Molina, Fredy Cabrera-Olivera, Bertha Vera-Barrios, Karina Acosta-Caipa, Lía Ramos-Fernández and Eusebio Ingol-Blanco
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German Huayna: Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Victor Pocco: Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Edwin Pino-Vargas: Department of Civil Engineering, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Pablo Franco-León: Laboratory of Ecological Processes, Research Group of Arid Zones, Deserts and Climate Change (ADERIZA), Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Jorge Espinoza-Molina: Department of Architecture, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Fredy Cabrera-Olivera: Department of Geological Engineering-Geotechnics, Jorge Basadre National University, Tacna 2300, Peru
Bertha Vera-Barrios: Faculty of Mining Engineering, National University of Moquegua, Moquegua 18001, Peru
Karina Acosta-Caipa: Department of Architecture, Jorge Basadre Grohmann National University, Tacna 23000, Peru
Lía Ramos-Fernández: Departament of Water Resources, Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima 15024, Peru
Eusebio Ingol-Blanco: Department of Civil Engineering, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-26

Abstract: The conservation and monitoring of land cover represent crucial elements for sustainable regional development, especially in fragile high Andean ecosystems. This study evaluates the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Locumba basin over the period of 1984–2023. A hybrid modeling approach combining artificial neural networks (ANN) and cellular automata (CA) was employed to project future changes for 2033, 2043, and 2053. The results reveal a significant reduction in glaciers and lagoons throughout the Locumba basin, with notable declines from 1984 to 2023, while vegetated areas, particularly grasslands and wetlands, experienced substantial expansion. Specifically, grasslands increased by 273.7% relative to their initial coverage, growing from 57.87 km 2 in 1984 to over 220.31 km 2 in 2023, with projections indicating continued growth to over 331.62 km 2 by 2053. This multitemporal analysis provides crucial information for anticipating future land dynamics and underscores the urgent need for strategic conservation planning to mitigate the continued loss of strategic ecosystems in the high Andean region of Tacna.

Keywords: land cover; cellular automata; artificial neural network; spatiotemporal analysis; ecosystem conservation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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