Balancing Urban Expansion and Food Security: A Spatiotemporal Assessment of Cropland Loss and Productivity Compensation in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Qiong Li, Yinlan Huang, Jianping Sun, Shi Chen () and Jinqiu Zou ()
Additional contact information
Qiong Li: School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou 247000, China
Yinlan Huang: School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou 247000, China
Jianping Sun: School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou 247000, China
Shi Chen: School of Geography and Planning, Chizhou University, Chizhou 247000, China
Jinqiu Zou: Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-16

Abstract: Cropland is a critical resource for safeguarding food security. Ensuring both the quantity and quality of cropland is essential for achieving zero hunger and promoting sustainable agriculture. However, whether urbanization-induced cropland loss poses a substantial threat to regional food security remains a key concern. This study examines the central region of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China, integrating CLCD (China Land Cover Dataset) land use/cover data (2001–2023), MOD17A2H net primary productivity (NPP) data, and statistical records to evaluate the impacts of urban expansion on grain yield. The analysis focuses on three components: (1) grain yield loss due to cropland conversion, (2) compensatory yield from newly added cropland under the requisition–compensation policy, (3) yield increases from stable cropland driven by agricultural enhancement strategies. Using Sen’s slope analysis, the Mann–Kendall trend test, and hot/coldspot analysis, we revealed that urban expansion converted approximately 14,598 km 2 of cropland, leading to a grain production loss of around 3.49 million tons, primarily in the economically developed cities of Yancheng, Nantong, Suzhou, and Shanghai. Meanwhile, 8278 km 2 of new cropland was added through land reclamation, contributing only 1.43 million tons of grain—offsetting just 41% of the loss. In contrast, stable cropland (102,188 km 2 ) contributed an increase of approximately 9.84 million tons, largely attributed to policy-driven productivity gains in areas such as Chuzhou, Hefei, and Ma’anshan. These findings suggest that while compensatory cropland alone is insufficient to mitigate the food security risks from urbanization, the combined strategy of “Safeguarding Grain in the Land and in Technology” can more than compensate for production losses. This study underscores the importance of optimizing land use policy, strengthening technological interventions, and promoting high-efficiency land management. It provides both theoretical insight and policy guidance for balancing urban development with regional food security and sustainable land use governance.

Keywords: urbanization; cropland protection; grain yield compensation; land use policy; food security; Yangtze River Delta (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1476/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/7/1476/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:7:p:1476-:d:1702735

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().