Ecological Stability over the Period: Land-Use Land-Cover Change and Prediction for 2030

Mária Tárníková and Zlatica Muchová ()
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Mária Tárníková: Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Hospodárska 7, 949 76 Nitra, Slovakia
Zlatica Muchová: Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Hospodárska 7, 949 76 Nitra, Slovakia

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: This study aimed to investigate land-use and land-cover change and the associated change in the ecological stability of the model area Dobrá–Opatová (district of Trenčín, Slovakia), where increasing landscape transformation has raised concerns about declining ecological resilience. Despite the importance of sustainable land management, few studies in this region have addressed long-term landscape dynamics in relation to ecological stability. This research fills that gap by evaluating historical and recent LULC changes and their ecological consequences. Four time horizons were analysed: 1850, 1949, 2009, and 2024. Although the selected time periods are irregular, they reflect key milestones in the region’s land development, such as pre-industrial land use, post-war collectivisation, and recent land consolidation. These activities significantly altered the structure of the landscape. To assess future trends, we used the MOLUSCE plug-in in QGIS to simulate ecological stability for the future. The greatest structural landscape changes occurred between 1850 and 1949. Significant transformation in agricultural areas was observed between 1949 and 2009, when collectivisation reshaped small plots into large block structures and major water management projects were implemented. The 2009–2024 period was marked by land consolidation, mainly resulting in the construction of gravel roads. These structural changes have contributed to a continuous decrease in ecological stability, calculated using the coefficient of ecological stability derived from LULC categories. To explore future trends, we simulated ecological stability for the year 2030 and the simulation confirmed a continued decline in ecological stability, highlighting the need for sustainable land-use planning in the area.

Keywords: landscape elements; land consolidation process; coefficient of ecological stability; GIS software; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:7:p:1503-:d:1706277

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