Analysis of Habitat Quality Changes in Mountainous Areas Using the PLUS Model and Construction of a Dynamic Restoration Framework for Ecological Security Patterns: A Case Study of Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, China

Zihan Dong, Haodong Liu, Hua Liu, Yongfu Chen, Xinru Fu, Yang Zhang, Jiajia Xia, Zhiwei Zhang and Qiao Chen ()
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Zihan Dong: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Haodong Liu: China Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Natural Resoures, Beijing 100083, China
Hua Liu: School of Forestry & Lanscape Architecture, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China
Yongfu Chen: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Xinru Fu: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Yang Zhang: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Jiajia Xia: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
Zhiwei Zhang: Resources and Enviroment College, Tibet Agriculture and Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi 860000, China
Qiao Chen: Institute of Forest Resource Information Techniques Chinese, Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: The intensifying global climate warming caused by human activities poses severe challenges to ecosystem stability. Constructing an ecological security pattern can identify ecological land supply and an effective spatial distribution baseline and provide a scientific basis for safeguarding regional ecological security. This study analyzes land-use data from 2000 to 2020 for Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. The PLUS model was utilized to project land-use potential for the year 2030. The InVEST model was employed to conduct a comprehensive assessment of habitat quality in the study area for both 2020 and 2030, thereby pinpointing ecological sources. Critical ecological restoration zones were delineated by identifying ecological corridors, pinch points, and barrier points through the application of the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model and circuit theory. By comparing ecological security patterns (ESPs) in 2020 and 2030, we proposed a dynamic restoration framework and optimization recommendations based on habitat quality changes and ESPs. The results indicate significant land-use changes in the eastern part of Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture from 2020 to 2030, with large-scale conversion of grasslands into bare land, farmland, and artificial surfaces. The ecological security pattern is threatened by risks like the deterioration of habitat quality, diminished ecological sources as well as pinch points, and growing barrier points. Optimizing the layout of ecological resources, strengthening barrier zone restoration and pinch point protection, and improving habitat connectivity are urgent priorities to ensure regional ecological security. This study offers a scientific foundation for the harmonization of ecological protection and economic development and the policy development and execution of relevant departments.

Keywords: Golog Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture; habitat quality; ecological security pattern; ecological restoration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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