Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanisms of Ecological Resilience in the Upper Yangtze River from 2010 to 2030

Hongxiang Wang, Lintong Huang, Shuai Han (), Jiaqi Lan (), Zhijie Yu and Wenxian Guo
Additional contact information
Hongxiang Wang: School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Lintong Huang: School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Shuai Han: Hunan Water Resources and Hydropower Survey, Design, Planning and Research Co., Ltd., Changsha 410014, China
Jiaqi Lan: School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
Zhijie Yu: Power China Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limited, Changsha 410014, China
Wenxian Guo: College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-27

Abstract: Watershed ecosystem resilience (RES) plays a vital role in supporting ecosystem sustainability. However, comprehensive assessments and investigations into the complex mechanisms driving RES remain limited, particularly in ecologically sensitive basins. To address this gap, this study proposes a multidimensional RES evaluation framework tailored to watershed-specific natural characteristics. The framework integrates five core dimensions: ecosystem resistance, ecosystem recovery capacity, ecosystem adaptability, ecosystem services, and ecosystem vitality. RES patterns under 2030 different future scenarios were simulated using the PLUS model combined with CMIP6 climate projections. Spatial and temporal dynamics of RES from 2010 to 2020 were quantified using Geodetector and Partial Least Squares Path Modeling, offering insights into the interactions among natural and anthropogenic drivers. The results reveal that RES in the Upper Yangtze River Basin exhibits a spatial gradient of “high in the east and west, low in the middle” with an overall 2.80% decline during the study period. Vegetation coverage and temperature emerged as dominant natural drivers, while land use change exerted significant indirect effects by altering ecological processes. This study emphasizes the importance of integrated land-climate strategies and offers valuable guidance for enhancing RES and supporting sustainable watershed management in the context of global environmental change.

Keywords: ecosystem resilience; land use change; climate change; PLS-PM; PLUS model; InVEST model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/8/1518/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/8/1518/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:8:p:1518-:d:1708453

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().