Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Climate Potential Productivity in Central Africa Based on High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Data

Mo Bi, Fangyi Ren, Yian Xu, Xinya Guo, Xixi Zhou, Dmitri van den Bersselaar, Xinfeng Li () and Hang Ren ()
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Mo Bi: School of Foreign Languages, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
Fangyi Ren: School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Yian Xu: School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Xinya Guo: School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Xixi Zhou: School of Foreign Languages, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
Dmitri van den Bersselaar: Institute of African Studies, Leipzig University, D-04107 Leipzig, Germany
Xinfeng Li: School of Foreign Languages, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
Hang Ren: Institute of Population Studies, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210042, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of Climate Potential Productivity (CPP) in Central Africa during 1901–2019 using the Thornthwaite Memorial model coupled with Mann–Kendall tests based on high spatial and temporal resolution data. The results demonstrate the climate–vegetation interactions under global warming: (1) Central Africa exhibited a statistically significant warming trend (r 2 = 0.33, p < 0.01) coupled with non-significant rainfall reduction, suggesting an emerging warm–dry climate regime that parallels meteorological trends observed in North Africa. (2) Central Africa exhibited an overall increasing trend in CPP, with temporal fluctuations closely aligned with precipitation variability. Specifically, the CPP in Central Africa has undergone three distinct phases: an increasing phase (1901–1960), a decreasing phase (1960–1980), and a slow recovery phase (1980–2019). The multiple intersection points between the UF and UB curves indicate that Central Africa’s CPP has been significantly affected by climate change under global warming. (3) The correlation of CPP–Temperature was mainly positive, mainly distributed in the Lower Guinea Plateau and the northern part of the Congo Basin (r 2 = 0.26, p < 0.1). The relationship of CPP–Precipitation showed predominantly a very strong positive correlation (r 2 = 0.91, p < 0.01).

Keywords: Central Africa; Climate Potential Productivity (CPP); Thornthwaite Memorial model; Mann–Kendall test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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