A Model for Future Development Scenario Planning to Address Population Change and Sea Level Rise

Daniel Farrah (), Michael Volk, Thomas S. Hoctor, Vivian Young, Margaret Carr, Paul D. Zwick, Crystal Goodison and Michael O’Brien
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Daniel Farrah: Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Michael Volk: Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Thomas S. Hoctor: Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Vivian Young: 1000 Friends of Florida, Tallahassee, FL 32301, USA
Margaret Carr: Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Paul D. Zwick: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Crystal Goodison: GeoPlan Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Michael O’Brien: Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-32

Abstract: Population growth and land use change often have significant environmental impacts, affecting biodiversity, water supply, agricultural production, and other resources. Future scenario models can provide a better understanding of these changes, helping planners and the public understand the consequences of choices regarding development density, land use, and conservation. This study presents a model that has been used to identify alternative future scenarios for Florida considering future population growth and land use. It includes two scenarios: a “Sprawl” scenario reflecting a continuation of current development patterns and a “Conservation” scenario with higher densities, redevelopment, and more land protection. The study incorporates sea level rise scenarios for both 2040 and 2070. Results show that the Sprawl scenario could lead to 3.5 million acres of new developed land and 1.8 million acres of lost agricultural land by 2070 in Florida. In contrast, the Conservation scenario for 2070 results in 1.3 million fewer acres of developed land and 5 million more acres of protected natural land, showing that it is possible to accommodate future population growth while reducing impacts to agricultural and conservation priorities in Florida. Although this is by no means a “prediction” of future Florida, it has been useful as a tool for evaluating potential future land use scenarios and is a model that may be more broadly applied by other locations and users.

Keywords: land use; population projections; land development; urban densities; urban density; greenfields; agricultural lands; natural lands (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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