Scenario-Based Assessment of Urbanization-Induced Land-Use Changes and Regional Habitat Quality Dynamics in Chengdu (1990–2030): Insights from FLUS-InVEST Modeling

Zhenyu Li, Yuanting Luo, Yuqi Yang, Yuxuan Qing, Yuxin Sun and Cunjian Yang ()
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Zhenyu Li: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China
Yuanting Luo: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China
Yuqi Yang: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China
Yuxuan Qing: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China
Yuxin Sun: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China
Cunjian Yang: Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China, Ministry of Education, Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu 610068, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-23

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization in western China, which has triggered remarkable land-use changes and habitat degradation, Chengdu, as a developed city in China, plays a demonstrative and leading role in the economic and social development of China during the transition period. Therefore, integrated modeling approaches are required to balance development and conservation. This study responds to this need by conducting a scenario-based assessment of urbanization-induced land-use changes and regional habitat quality dynamics in Chengdu (1990–2030), using the FLUS-InVEST model. By integrating remote sensing-derived land-use data from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, we simulate future regional habitat quality under three policy scenarios: natural development, ecological priority, and cropland protection. Key findings include the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, cropland decreased by 1917.78 km 2 , while forestland and built-up areas increased by 509.91 km 2 and 1436.52 km 2 , respectively. Under the 2030 natural development scenario, built-up expansion and cropland reduction are projected. Ecological priority policies would enhance forestland (+4.2%) but slightly reduce cropland. (2) Regional habitat quality declined overall (1990–2020), with the sharpest drop (ΔHQ = −0.063) occurring between 2000 and 2010 due to accelerated urbanization. (3) Scenario analysis reveals that the ecological priority strategy yields the highest regional habitat quality (HQ mean = 0.499), while natural development results in the lowest (HQ mean = 0.444). This study demonstrates how the FLUS-InVEST model can quantify the trade-offs between urbanization and regional habitat quality, offering a scientific framework for balancing development and ecological conservation in rapidly urbanizing regions. The findings highlight the effectiveness of ecological priority policies in mitigating habitat degradation, with implications for similar cities seeking sustainable land-use strategies that integrate farmland protection and forest restoration.

Keywords: FLUS-InVEST model; land-use transfer matrix; multi-scenario simulation; regional habitat quality; Chengdu city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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