Water-Yield Variability and Its Attribution in the Yellow River Basin of China over Four Decades

Luying Li, Xin Chen (), Yayuan Che, Hao Yang, Ziqiang Du, Zhitao Wu, Tao Liu, Zhenrong Du, Xiangcheng Li and Yaoyao Li ()
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Luying Li: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
Xin Chen: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
Yayuan Che: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
Hao Yang: Engineering Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in the Middle Yellow River, Ministry of Natural Resources, Taiyuan 030024, China
Ziqiang Du: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
Zhitao Wu: Institute of Loess Plateau, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
Tao Liu: Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhenrong Du: School of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
Xiangcheng Li: Engineering Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in the Middle Yellow River, Ministry of Natural Resources, Taiyuan 030024, China
Yaoyao Li: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Land, 2025, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-20

Abstract: The water-yield function in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) of China for maintaining the basin’s ecological water balance plays a crucial role. Understanding its spatiotemporal variation and the underlying drivers in the basin is crucial for the management, utilization, and development of water resources. Thus, we used the InVEST model to explore its spatiotemporal dynamics across multiple scales (“basin–county–pixel”). Then, we integrated socio-economic and natural factors to elucidate the driving forces and spatial heterogeneity of water-yield dynamics. Our findings indicated that water-yield trends increased in 71.76% of the YRB, and significant water-yield increases were detected in 13.9% of the basin over the past 40 years. A phase-wise comparison revealed a shift in water yield from a decreasing trend in the first two decades to a significant increasing trend in the last two decades. Hotspot analysis revealed that hotspots of increasing water-yield trends have shifted from the downstream section of the basin toward the southwest, while hotspots of decreasing water-yield trends first concentrated in the basin’s southern part and then disappeared. Both natural and socioeconomic factors have exerted positive and negative impacts on water-yield dynamics. Among them, the dynamics of water yield have been predominantly driven by natural variables.

Keywords: InVEST model; water yield; Yellow River Basin; spatiotemporal variation; attribution analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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